Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

4B 0x4ba3…97ce sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$122 (-16%) realized −$122 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR49%break-even

Win rate54%19W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day33.6pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit54%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +49%

net ROI/market (all)-1.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	35	+8.9%	-1.5%	54%	49%	+0.4%
≤30d	35	+8.9%	-1.5%	54%	49%	+0.4%
≤90d	35	+8.9%	-1.5%	54%	49%	+0.4%
all	35	+8.9%	-1.5%	54%	49%	+0.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-1.5%	49%	+0.4%
10% ← realistic here	-10.9%	40%	-9.2%
15%	-19.5%	31%	-18.0%
20%	-27.4%	29%	-26.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -26% → late +42% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$19 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.27 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$122

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses19 / 16

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)35 / 35

History coverage1d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day33.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 35 Trades

no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$22	+$16	+74%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$26	+$39	+152%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$26	+$24	+90%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 23	$27	+$6	+22%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$29	+$2	+8%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$19	+$31	+165%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$18	+$55	+307%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$13	+$49	+370%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$17	−$16	-97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$27	+$7	+26%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$19	−$19	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$17	−$17	-100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 23	$28	+$3	+12%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$21	+$19	+93%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$25	+$8	+32%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$13	−$13	-98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$29	−$29	-99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$17	−$16	-98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 23	$26	+$9	+34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$25	+$51	+206%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$30	+$2	+7%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 23	$27	+$11	+40%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$28	+$24	+86%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 23	$26	−$25	-98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$28	−$28	-99%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 23	$22	−$22	-98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Jun 23	$18	−$17	-98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$18	+$30	+165%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$14	−$13	-98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 23	$20	−$19	-98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 23	$27	−$26	-98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 22	$17	−$16	-98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$16	−$15	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$8	+$2	+21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	57¢	$22	58m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	52¢	$26	1h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	81¢	$27	1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	39¢	$26	1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	21¢	$13	1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	92¢	$29	2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	24¢	$18	2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	37¢	$19	2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	11¢	$17	2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$19	5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	18¢	$3	5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	79¢	$27	5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	18¢	$4	5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	18¢	$7	5h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	89¢	$28	18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	34¢	$13	19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	63¢	$29	19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$25	19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$21	19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	30¢	$17	19h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	74¢	$26	20h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	93¢	$30	21h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	22¢	$26	21h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	56¢	$28	21h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	18¢	$22	21h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Norway	31¢	$18	21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Senegal	71¢	$27	22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	23¢	$14	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records