Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4bab…2098 other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+10%) realized +$74 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 51L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day46.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$96
sports 20% +$100
crypto 2% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +22.4% +10.8% 35% 34% -1.0%
≤30d 79 +22.4% +10.8% 35% 34% -1.0%
≤90d 79 +22.4% +10.8% 35% 34% -1.0%
all 79 +22.4% +10.8% 35% 34% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.8% 34% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here +0.2% 29% -10.4%
15% -9.5% 27% -19.1%
20% -18.4% 27% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 51
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)79 / 84
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$6 +140%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -81%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -19%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +47%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +251%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +27%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -82%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -80%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 +$14 +264%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$65 +1265%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$27 +133%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +81%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $9 +$3 +32%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 +$7 +64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $4 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 17h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 24h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 24h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 24h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.98 · official $21.98 (match) · 170 history records