Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4B 0x4bab…15e7 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$1,168 (+22%) realized +$1,171 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$345
7 days+$1,526
14 days+$1,526
30 days+$1,590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$632
sports 30% +$1,113
world 15% −$253
crypto 4% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +75.6% +58.8% 66% 66% +31.5%
≤30d 33 +70.6% +54.4% 64% 64% +27.2%
≤90d 35 +63.9% +48.3% 63% 60% +16.3%
all 44 +41.1% +27.7% 57% 55% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.7% 55% +14.3%
10% +15.4% 52% +3.4%
15% +4.3% 50% -6.6%
20% -5.9% 36% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$69 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$1,171
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage97d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $68 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $38 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 +$43 +44%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $214 +$107 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $369 +$146 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$66 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$59 +577%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $99 +$225 +226%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $48 −$46 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $182 −$179 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $598 +$140 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $69 +$414 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $130 −$128 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $84 +$210 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $163 +$281 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $98 +$43 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $51 +$116 +226%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $98 −$4 -4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15? May 30 $297 +$52 +18%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $275 −$275 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $500 +$22 +4%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 16 $50 +$25 +50%
Will Mercedes double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 16 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will George Russell achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Mar 14 $71 +$40 +56%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ferrari double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pri Mar 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pr Mar 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $39 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $69 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $49 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 45h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $99 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $214 45h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $369 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $48 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $99 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $182 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $598 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $130 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $69 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.12 · official $180.12 (match) · 76 history records