Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4B 0x4bad…0d5b sports 19 markets active 3d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$61 (+18%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$44
other 20% +$38
world 8% −$25
crypto 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -6.3% -15.2% 41% 41% -4.9%
≤30d 19 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 47% +3.5%
≤90d 19 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 47% +3.5%
all 19 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 47% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 47% +3.5%
10% -7.8% 47% -6.4%
15% -16.7% 47% -15.4%
20% -24.9% 42% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dean Henderson: 2+ saves Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
José Sá: 2+ saves Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 +$21 +81%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$20 +63%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$12 +111%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $16 +$14 +91%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 −$3 -18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $26 −$1 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 +$11 +104%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$57 +217%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -91%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $21 +$9 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$20 +240%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records