Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:21:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4B 0x4bad…5bae sports 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$353 (+14%) realized +$337 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%65W / 59L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$179
14 days+$285
30 days+$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$241
crypto 8% −$46
other 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -9.9% -18.5% 49% 49% +4.6%
≤30d 96 -0.9% -10.3% 54% 53% +5.1%
≤90d 96 -0.9% -10.3% 54% 53% +5.1%
all 124 -6.3% -15.3% 52% 51% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 51% -1.8%
10% -23.4% 47% -11.2%
15% -30.8% 42% -19.8%
20% -37.6% 35% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized+$337
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses65 / 59
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions4
Markets (closed)124 / 129
History coverage196d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ 74¢ $147 $185 +$39 (+26%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ 48¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ 54¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 31¢ 14¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $107 −$106 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $20 +$7 +38%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $321 +$199 +62%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $151 +$172 +114%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $30 −$29 -97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $119 +$63 +53%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $21 −$20 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $12 +$3 +24%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $10 +$8 +83%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $10 +$18 +172%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $10 +$16 +158%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 +$15 +146%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $10 +$12 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $148 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $51 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 31¢ $31 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays AND Philadelphia Phillies vs. Was BUY 3¢ $10 2h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $101 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $51 2h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $107 3h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 65¢ $26 28h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 1¢ $1 28h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 100¢ $27 28h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 74¢ $5 28h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 71¢ $14 28h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $5 29h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $153 29h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 95¢ $95 29h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 91¢ $91 29h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 88¢ $175 29h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 7¢ $3 30h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 56¢ $135 31h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 57¢ $186 31h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $151 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 3¢ $9 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 3¢ $9 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 9¢ $11 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 87¢ $181 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 56¢ $119 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $10 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 62¢ $10 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $10 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 56¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.73 · official $346.16 (match) · 343 history records