Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bad…1e9e sports 163 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$541 (-5%) realized −$480 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%62W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$212
7 days−$613
14 days−$921
30 days−$713
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$778
crypto 2% −$2
other 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -23.8% -31.1% 37% 37% -22.5%
≤30d 79 -2.9% -12.2% 35% 35% -15.2%
≤90d 79 -2.9% -12.2% 35% 35% -15.2%
all 161 -6.1% -15.0% 39% 37% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 37% -15.7%
10% -23.2% 37% -23.7%
15% -30.6% 32% -31.1%
20% -37.4% 25% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$35 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$480
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses62 / 99
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions2
Markets (closed)161 / 163
History coverage120d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 24¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-98%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $109 −$107 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $74 −$60 -80%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $66 +$54 +83%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $50 +$60 +119%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $103 −$92 -89%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $102 −$42 -41%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $80 −$79 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 +$53 +53%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $152 +$116 +76%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $61 +$75 +124%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $152 +$111 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $152 −$110 -72%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 −$84 -83%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $41 +$59 +146%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $48 +$52 +109%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $70 −$25 -36%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $134 −$101 -76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $119 −$78 -65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $194 +$106 +55%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $305 +$205 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $303 +$180 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $112 −$50 -45%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$49 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $254 −$250 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $254 −$250 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $98 −$96 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $95 −$93 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $152 −$147 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $212 +$124 +58%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $183 +$31 +17%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$38 -37%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $81 +$46 +57%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 −$133 -87%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$61 +120%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $404 −$262 -65%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $160 +$100 +62%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 +$101 +50%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $55 +$59 +106%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $111 −$78 -70%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $180 −$7 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $60 +$58 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$25 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $12 11m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $2 12m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 26¢ $63 12m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $152 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 2h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 33¢ $50 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 13¢ $15 3h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $59 10h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 10h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $74 10h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $66 10h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $50 23h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 5¢ $11 23h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $103 25h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $60 26h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 27h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $80 31h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 78¢ $155 46h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 47h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $152 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $152 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $61 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $42 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 9¢ $18 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $152 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $41 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $48 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $45 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $70 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $2.33 · 348 history records