Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:28:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4baf…4404 other 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 421d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-1%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%35W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$32
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$14
world 38% −$69
politics 9% −$9
crypto 3% +$7
finance 2% +$5
sports 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.2% -15.1% 17% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 26 -6.4% -15.4% 23% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 31 -6.1% -15.0% 26% 0% -10.3%
all 120 -4.0% -13.1% 29% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 3% -10.1%
10% -21.4% 2% -18.7%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

421d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses35 / 85
Open positions3
Markets (closed)120 / 123
History coverage421d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 81¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 73¢ 66¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $83 −$6 -7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $241 −$7 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $27 −$8 -30%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $112 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $119 −$8 -7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $320 −$3 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $132 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $216 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $161 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $139 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $129 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $129 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $237 −$6 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $180 −$14 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $139 +$5 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $132 −$4 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $132 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $125 +$8 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $225 −$21 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $165 +$4 +2%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 15 $29 −$2 -8%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $1,020 +$2 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $199 +$4 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $77 −$11 -14%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $130 +$3 +3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $117 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -83%
Will valid votes be between 34 million and 36 million in South Korean Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $23 +$5 +22%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 28 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 27 $26 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 16–23? May 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 22 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $77 23m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $48 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $35 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $61 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $39 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $104 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $76 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $76 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $69 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 100¢ $115 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $18 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $11 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $9 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $123 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $123 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $71 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $112 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $64 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $45 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.66 · official $0.00 · 486 history records