Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4B 0x4bb0…428d sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$147 (-5%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%4W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$4
other 28% −$1
sports 15% −$142
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-50.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.7% +0.1% 14% 14% -8.1%
≤30d 7 +10.7% +0.1% 14% 14% -8.1%
≤90d 7 +10.7% +0.1% 14% 14% -8.1%
all 27 -44.9% -50.2% 15% 11% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.2% 11% -15.2%
10% -54.9% 11% -23.4%
15% -59.3% 11% -30.8%
20% -63.3% 11% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$15 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$910
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses4 / 23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage574d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $390 $390 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $310 $310 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $210 $210 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $300 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $330 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $380 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Mavericks Jun 20 $43 +$32 +75%
Utah vs. Sabres Nov 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Lightning vs. Capitals Oct 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Chargers vs. Raiders Sep 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado vs. Houston Sep 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Marlins vs. Nationals Sep 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Nationals vs. Yankees Aug 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Falcons vs. Cowboys Aug 26 $8 +$6 +72%
Pirates vs. Brewers Aug 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Marlins vs. Guardians Aug 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 08 $2 $0 -4%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $5 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Feb 10 $105 +$151 +144%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Feb 07 $113 −$113 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Nov 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $390 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $310 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 1h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $210 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $399 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $400 7h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $300 7h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $210 7h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $210 7h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $330 7h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $380 7h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $380 47h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $210 47h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $330 47h
Suns vs. Mavericks BUY Suns 57¢ $43 221d
Utah vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 46¢ $24 230d
Lightning vs. Capitals BUY Lightning 49¢ $8 251d
Chargers vs. Raiders BUY Raiders 38¢ $3 280d
Colorado vs. Houston BUY Colorado 35¢ $1 283d
Marlins vs. Nationals BUY Marlins 48¢ $5 294d
Nationals vs. Yankees BUY Nationals 40¢ $13 300d
Falcons vs. Cowboys BUY Cowboys 58¢ $8 304d
Pirates vs. Brewers BUY Pirates 35¢ $12 313d
Marlins vs. Guardians BUY Marlins 44¢ $6 314d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? SELL No 27¢ $2 410d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY No 28¢ $2 410d
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $5 439d
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $5 439d
Arsenal wins the Premier League? SELL No 97¢ $5 441d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $909.54 · official $909.54 (match) · 47 history records