Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bb2…a656 sports 276 markets active 6h ago coverage 147d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$30,309 (+13%) realized +$38,426 · open −$8,117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%101W / 323L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$823per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$1,228est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$33,170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 147d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$1,710
other 36% −$831
politics 14% −$13,769
world 3% −$466
economics 0% −$342
tech 0% +$81
finance 0% −$110
crypto 0% +$9
culture 0% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 -91.5% -92.3% 2% 2% -95.3%
≤30d 222 -85.6% -87.0% 6% 5% -89.5%
≤90d 355 -53.8% -58.2% 20% 18% -60.4%
all 424 -47.1% -52.1% 24% 19% -51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.1% 19% -51.1%
10% -56.7% 18% -55.8%
15% ← realistic here -60.9% 17% -60.1%
20% -64.7% 17% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$813 vs −$730 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$33,170
Realized+$38,426
Unrealized−$8,117
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses101 / 323
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1,228
Open positions51
Markets (closed)424 / 276
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$823
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $7,500 $14,872 +$7,372 (+98%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 69¢ $1,000 $1,829 +$829 (+83%)
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $1,508 $1,573 +$65 (+4%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 20¢ 16¢ $1,923 $1,527 −$396 (-21%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 86¢ 94¢ $922 $1,006 +$84 (+9%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $1,000 $813 −$188 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1,000 $792 −$208 (-21%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 45¢ $507 $652 +$145 (+29%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 52¢ $484 $578 +$94 (+19%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 92¢ $562 $554 −$8 (-1%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 66¢ $504 $528 +$24 (+5%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 72¢ 76¢ $500 $525 +$24 (+5%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 60¢ $500 $505 +$4 (+1%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 38¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $500 $485 −$15 (-3%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 54¢ $488 $459 −$29 (-6%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 39¢ $500 $454 −$47 (-9%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 79¢ 84¢ $395 $421 +$26 (+7%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $427 $367 −$60 (-14%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $339 $363 +$24 (+7%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $351 $355 +$4 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 59¢ 57¢ $356 $345 −$11 (-3%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $200 $320 +$120 (+60%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 64¢ $220 $302 +$82 (+37%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 18¢ $384 $254 −$130 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 309 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Fresno State vs. San Jose State Jun 17 $450 −$450 -100%
Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 40.5 Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Jun 17 $7,155 −$7,155 -100%
Spread: Lions (-7.5) Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Celta Vigo vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 17 $177 −$177 -100%
UNLV vs. Colorado State: O/U 62.5 Jun 17 $958 −$958 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-13.5) Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Jun 17 $777 −$777 -100%
Will West Ham vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Lecce vs. Napoli end in a draw? Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: UCF (-13.5) Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Giants vs. Lions: O/U 50.5 Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-10-24? Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%? Jun 17 $232 −$232 -100%
Spread: Ravens (-7.5) Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Vikings (-2.5) Jun 17 $289 −$289 -100%
Spread: Memphis (-13.5) Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-11-22? Jun 17 $870 −$870 -100%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-22? Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? Jun 17 $333 −$333 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-11-09? Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh (-9.5) Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Air Force vs. Colorado State: O/U 45.5 Jun 17 $235 −$235 -100%
Will US Cremonese vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Jun 17 $219 −$219 -100%
Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5 Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Espanyol vs. Villarreal end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Kennesaw State (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Tulane (-9.5) Jun 17 $1,712 −$1,712 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
49ers vs. Browns Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: North Texas (-20.5) Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 50.5 Jun 17 $480 −$480 -100%
Spread: West Virginia (-6.5) Jun 17 $985 −$985 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-11-02? Jun 17 $394 −$394 -100%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Cowboys vs. Broncos: O/U 51.5 Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Fresno State (-3.5) Jun 17 $720 −$720 -100%
Spread: Clemson (-3.5) Jun 17 $485 −$485 -100%
Spread: 49ers (-6.5) Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Arizona (-6.5) Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Brentford vs. Newcastle end in a draw? Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Patriots vs. Bengals Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee Jun 17 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 5h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 16¢ $9 7h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 16¢ $8 18h
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 22h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 16¢ $0 25h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 16¢ $0 33h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 16¢ $2 36h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $14 2d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $14 2d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $14 2d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $14 2d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $14 2d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 28¢ $7 2d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 17¢ $5 3d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 17¢ $0 3d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 17¢ $0 3d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 3d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,170.14 · official $33,170.59 (match) · 3500 history records