Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bb3…bc62 other 241 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$24
14 days−$32
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$42
sports 22% −$17
politics 8% −$8
culture 7% −$7
crypto 5% −$3
economics 3% −$2
world 3% −$4
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 163 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 240 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)240 / 241
History coverage138d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 28 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 28 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $367 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 27 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $882 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $129 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $238 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $100 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 25 $658 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $103 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 25 $362 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 24 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $141 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $449 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 24 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 23 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $406 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 22 $297 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $517 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 21 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $433 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $379 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $536 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $346 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $107 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 13m
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 4h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 6h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $45 7h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $45 9h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 17h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 19h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 20h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 22h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 26h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 27h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 29h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $46 30h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 32h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 33h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 35h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 37h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 42h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 44h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $46 45h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $46 47h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $24 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.84 · official $44.84 (match) · 1411 history records