Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4B 0x4bb3…ed90 sports 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$22 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%139W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$214
7 days−$170
14 days−$241
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$189
other 11% −$21
crypto 1% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.5% -9.1% 59% 59% -17.6%
≤30d 105 +3.4% -6.4% 58% 58% -10.9%
≤90d 243 -1.0% -10.5% 57% 57% -10.7%
all 243 -1.0% -10.5% 57% 57% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 57% -10.7%
10% -19.0% 56% -19.2%
15% -26.8% 50% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 41% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$43 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses139 / 104
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions5
Markets (closed)243 / 248
History coverage86d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B OG 51¢ 54¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 54¢ 51¢ $45 $42 −$2 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 56¢ 50¢ $46 $42 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 21 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $64 +$29 +46%
Justin Kluivert: 1+ goals Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $62 +$48 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $43 +$27 +65%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 19 $47 +$33 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $77 +$48 +62%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $31 +$19 +60%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 19 $25 +$50 +197%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$82 -82%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $72 −$72 -100%
Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots Jun 18 $70 +$111 +158%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $30 +$10 +34%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Harry Kane: 5+ shots Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $89 +$35 +40%
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals Jun 18 $141 +$41 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $41 +$39 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $85 +$36 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$37 +48%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $73 +$47 +65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $82 −$82 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $45 +$31 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $42 +$33 +79%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $59 +$64 +109%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $31 +$24 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $64 +$36 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $64 +$36 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $52 +$22 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $62 −$28 -46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $31 +$24 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $30 +$30 +101%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 11 $36 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $33 +$45 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 51¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 56¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 56¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 56¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 54¢ $45 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $75 5h
Justin Kluivert: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 64¢ $166 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $78 2d
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 53¢ $53 2d
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 52¢ $0 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $31 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $43 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $62 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $4 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $5 3d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY FaZe Vegas 58¢ $47 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $72 4d
Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots BUY Yes 38¢ $70 4d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 62¢ $31 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 61¢ $43 4d
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 33¢ $25 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $77 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $89 5d
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $141 5d
Harry Kane: 5+ shots BUY No 59¢ $86 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.95 · official $268.70 (match) · 525 history records