Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bb5…dfca weather 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$95 (+1%) realized +$107 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate58%80W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days−$288
14 days−$101
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$61
finance 1% +$3
politics 0% −$2
other 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -9.6% -18.2% 68% 38% -13.0%
≤30d 139 -10.1% -18.6% 58% 40% -9.8%
≤90d 139 -10.1% -18.6% 58% 40% -9.8%
all 139 -10.1% -18.6% 58% 40% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 40% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 27% -18.5%
15% -33.5% 17% -26.3%
20% -40.0% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$25 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$383
Realized+$107
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses80 / 59
Open positions11
Markets (closed)139 / 150
History coverage25d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Yes 44¢ 97¢ $37 $80 +$44 (+119%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $62 $79 +$17 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 44¢ 76¢ $44 $76 +$32 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Yes 31¢ 38¢ $31 $38 +$7 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Yes 50¢ 36¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $33 $22 −$11 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $30 $17 −$12 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Yes 48¢ 4¢ $48 $4 −$44 (-91%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 72¢ 63¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? Yes 43¢ 1¢ $35 $1 −$34 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 +$3 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $51 +$13 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $74 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $109 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 +$2 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $76 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $85 −$11 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $39 −$37 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $742 +$62 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $127 +$62 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$2 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $324 +$17 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $381 −$5 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $370 −$330 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 −$7 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $107 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $615 +$70 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 −$33 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$12 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$10 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $46 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $471 +$21 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $241 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$7 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 +$10 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $272 +$39 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $127 +$16 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $522 +$38 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $96 −$20 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 −$45 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $132 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 +$23 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 +$21 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 22m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 28m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 28m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 28m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $22 29m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 31m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 38m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.43 · official $383.43 (match) · 728 history records