Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4B 0x4bb5…7377 crypto 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+1%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%136W / 2L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$27
14 days+$44
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 4% -7.4%
≤30d 138 -0.0% -9.6% 99% 1% -8.3%
≤90d 138 -0.0% -9.6% 99% 1% -8.3%
all 138 -0.0% -9.6% 99% 1% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -8.3%
10% -18.2% 1% -17.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×20.66 per $1 lost it wins $20.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses136 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage26d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $32 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $47 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $44 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $33 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $37 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $33 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $47 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $45 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $39 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $41 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 274 history records