Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4bba…a6ee sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$640 (+6%) realized +$939 · open −$299
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate71%27W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$819now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$469
other 21% +$81
crypto 9% +$72
politics 7% −$301
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.3% -7.4% 45% 9% -4.4%
≤30d 12 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 8% -4.4%
≤90d 13 +8.1% -2.2% 54% 15% +8.3%
all 38 +4.9% -5.1% 71% 16% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 16% -3.8%
10% -14.2% 5% -13.0%
15% -22.5% 3% -21.4%
20% -30.1% 3% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$2 · ×11.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×62.93 per $1 lost it wins $62.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$819
Realized+$939
Unrealized−$299
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses27 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage551d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 89¢ $390 $691 +$301 (+77%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 11¢ $390 $89 −$301 (-77%)
Valantis FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+7%)
Saturn FDV above $1B one day after launch No 88¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch No 56¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 26 $26 +$4 +16%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Saturn launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 25 $22 $0 +0%
City Protocol FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Saturn FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 24 $16 $0 -2%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 22 $287 +$15 +5%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $18 $0 +2%
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $433 +$30 +7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $6 $0 +6%
Spread: Bucks (-2.5) Apr 02 $216 +$161 +74%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 19 $34 +$1 +2%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 19 $191 +$11 +6%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 19 $331 +$11 +3%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 19 $377 +$7 +2%
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 19 $565 +$15 +3%
Spread: Bucks (-1.5) Mar 18 $16 +$4 +23%
Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $151 +$7 +4%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Mar 17 $2,606 +$86 +3%
Spread: Bucks (-3.5) Feb 25 $769 +$100 +13%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: 1H Moneyline Feb 22 $453 −$3 -1%
Mavericks vs. Bucks: 1H Moneyline Feb 21 $598 +$64 +11%
Raptors vs. Bucks Feb 21 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 07 $60 +$1 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 05 $1,092 +$32 +3%
Will Solana reach $310 before 2026? Oct 30 $191 +$19 +10%
Solana all time high before 2026? Oct 28 $286 +$46 +16%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 21 $16 −$6 -35%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves May 15 $114 +$5 +4%
Farcaster airdrop in Q2 2025? Apr 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $113 $0 +0%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? Feb 12 $97 $0 -0%
OpenSea airdrop before April? Jan 18 $197 $0 +0%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jan 12 $107 +$6 +5%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 01 $106 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL No 16¢ $30 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $13 2h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $13 2h
Valantis FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 24¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 23¢ $2 8h
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch SELL No 69¢ $4 42h
Saturn FDV above $1B one day after launch BUY No 88¢ $9 42h
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch BUY No 55¢ $3 3d
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch SELL No 57¢ $11 3d
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch BUY No 56¢ $3 3d
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch BUY No 63¢ $13 3d
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 45¢ $21 3d
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 41¢ $7 3d
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 41¢ $12 3d
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 45¢ $3 3d
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 45¢ $277 3d
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 41¢ $11 3d
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 41¢ $2 3d
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 40¢ $12 3d
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 42¢ $8 3d
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 42¢ $2 3d
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 42¢ $231 3d
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $17 5d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 5d
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 5d
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 5d
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $463 6d
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $133 7d
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $64 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $819.18 · official $819.18 (match) · 750 history records