Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4bbb…e3ae sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate80%66W / 17L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$421per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$36
other 29% +$6
crypto 17% +$5
politics 9% −$1
culture 8% −$3
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.3% -2.9% 86% 14% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +7.3% -2.9% 86% 14% -9.4%
≤90d 50 -8.1% -16.8% 80% 24% -9.3%
all 83 -3.8% -13.0% 80% 19% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 19% -9.4%
10% -21.3% 13% -18.1%
15% -28.9% 8% -26.0%
20% -35.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses66 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)83 / 88
History coverage239d
Avg bet$421
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 21 $2,100 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 14 $1,632 +$45 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $498 +$2 +0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $15 +$5 +37%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $2 +$1 +60%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $10 +$3 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $24 +$13 +54%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 09 $110 +$15 +13%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $1,603 +$5 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $10 +$3 +27%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $483 +$17 +4%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 05 $1,990 +$2 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $1,994 +$2 +0%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $1,996 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 27 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $1,898 +$2 +0%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 21 $41 −$41 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 21 $7 +$1 +14%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 21 $14 +$2 +11%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 21 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 26 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $4 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 38d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 38d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 38d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $10 38d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 53¢ $11 38d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $1,494 39d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $78 39d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $498 39d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $50 39d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $10 39d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 73¢ $15 40d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 65¢ $5 41d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL No 100¢ $2,086 42d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $2 43d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $10 43d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $2,100 43d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 43d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 63¢ $13 43d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 67¢ $11 43d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $999 44d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $537 44d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $62 44d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $110 45d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 60¢ $5 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.84 · official $167.84 (match) · 320 history records