Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bbd…19f4 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$29
other 26% +$1
sports 12% $0
politics 8% $0
economics 8% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 44 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 0% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -12.0%
10% -20.0% 0% -20.4%
15% -27.7% 0% -28.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage540d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Jun 26 $85 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Apr 21 $85 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 22 $84 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 21 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Dec 05 $84 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 07 $82 +$2 +2%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Oct 28 $82 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 13-19? Oct 26 $82 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Oct 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Oct 15 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 02 $33 $0 +0%
Solana above $200 on February 21? Sep 27 $33 $0 +1%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Feb 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $84 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $85 66d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $85 155d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $84 186d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY No 99¢ $84 203d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 BUY No 100¢ $84 231d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $82 240d
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? BUY No 100¢ $82 242d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $82 251d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 254d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 254d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 254d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 254d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $5 254d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $20 254d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 254d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $28 254d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? SELL No 99¢ $33 254d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $33 267d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $33 272d
Solana above $200 on February 21? BUY No 99¢ $33 490d
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? SELL No 100¢ $5 499d
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY No 100¢ $5 529d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $5 540d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $5 540d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $5 540d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $5 540d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $5 540d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $5 540d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $5 540d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.87 · official $83.87 (match) · 93 history records