Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4bbf…517e
crypto · 1497 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,066 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,027 · open −$40
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$107
Realized−$1,027
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses437 / 1049
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1486 / 1497
History coverage18d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day108.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 32 History 1486 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$201
7 days−$731
14 days−$1,443
30 days−$1,027
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 15¢ 38¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+150%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+75%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+72%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 45¢ 72¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 29¢ 13¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes 36¢ 35¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Elon Bull Run Parlay Yes 18¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 24¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Tucker Carlson federally charged? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$12 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$13 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$22 +408%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$10 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$1,025
other 1% −$31
world 0% +$2
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 495 -15.0% -23.1% 26% 26% -27.1%
≤30d 1486 -6.4% -15.3% 29% 29% -15.4%
≤90d 1486 -6.4% -15.3% 29% 29% -15.4%
all 1486 -6.4% -15.3% 29% 29% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover108.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 29% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 29% -23.5%
15% -30.8% 29% -30.9%
20% -37.6% 29% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.36 · official $107.27 (match) · 3500 history records