Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:56:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bc0…e6db sports 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$820 (-47%) realized −$834 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate36%38W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$8
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$802
sports 21% −$15
tech 3% $0
world 1% −$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 22 +2.3% -7.5% 73% 36% -9.2%
≤90d 90 +15.2% +4.2% 38% 27% -62.7%
all 105 +6.4% -3.8% 36% 26% -62.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 26% -62.6%
10% -13.0% 23% -66.2%
15% -21.4% 20% -69.4%
20% -29.1% 16% -72.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized−$834
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses38 / 67
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)105 / 111
History coverage482d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? No 92¢ 93¢ $241 $245 +$3 (+1%)
California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $18 $28 +$10 (+58%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $34 +$16 +47%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 13 $44 +$5 +11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $28 +$1 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 27 $44 −$3 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Little Rock: Yuta Shimizu vs Bernard Tomic May 27 $3 $0 -1%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Kittay/Ram vs Bublik/Shevchenko May 26 $41 −$2 -5%
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula May 26 $1 +$19 +1843%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $2 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 26 $1 $0 -8%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 26 $2 $0 -3%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens May 26 $3 $0 -4%
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 26 $5 $0 -11%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Blockx May 26 $20 −$1 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $1 +$3 +307%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $1 +$14 +1394%
Kosice: Kilian Feldbausch vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $1 +$1 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic May 25 $9 +$1 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci May 24 $1 +$1 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Coleman Wong May 24 $1 $0 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Reilly Opelka May 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils May 24 $1 +$3 +248%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Zizou Bergs May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $79 1h
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $79 10h
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $8 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 60¢ $9 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 13d
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $9 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 13d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY Yes 100¢ $22 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 15d
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $26 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 15d
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $6 15d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 67¢ $5 15d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 98¢ $4 15d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 64¢ $5 15d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 64¢ $5 15d
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $9 15d
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $8 15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 15d
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $5 16d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 16d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 65¢ $20 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 16d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 16d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Aziz Dougaz BUY Raphael Collignon 90¢ $4 16d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Aziz Dougaz BUY Raphael Collignon 90¢ $40 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.56 · official $342.54 (match) · 230 history records