Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4bc1…222f
crypto · 223 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$722 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$732 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$110
Realized−$732
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses122 / 98
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)220 / 223
History coverage11d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day86.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 220 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$274
7 days−$901
14 days−$732
30 days−$732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $101 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $154 −$44 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $122 +$36 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $111 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $62 +$53 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $62 +$51 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $42 +$28 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $83 +$101 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$20 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% −$1,003
sports 14% +$61
other 4% +$215
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 23¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -22.4% -29.8% 46% 43% -30.0%
≤30d 220 -13.1% -21.4% 55% 31% -13.3%
≤90d 220 -13.1% -21.4% 55% 31% -13.3%
all 220 -13.1% -21.4% 55% 31% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover86.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 31% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 25% -21.6%
15% -35.8% 21% -29.2%
20% -42.1% 15% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.47 · official $210.47 · 1243 history records