Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bc3…f34c other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 33L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$1
politics 20% $0
world 18% +$2
sports 16% $0
crypto 8% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 17% 17% -8.4%
≤90d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 17% 17% -8.4%
all 40 +0.0% -9.5% 18% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage264d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $17 +$2 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 10 $11 $0 -5%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $11 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Oct 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $16 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 07 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 04 $7 $0 -2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $10 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Oct 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $3 $0 +6%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $12 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $19 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $35 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $35 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $16 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $30 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $30 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 20d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $26 247d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $26 247d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 98¢ $18 248d
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 250d
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 250d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 90¢ $11 250d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 91¢ $11 251d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $10 251d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 98¢ $18 251d
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $13 251d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.67 · official $34.67 (match) · 103 history records