Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bc4…5221 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized +$78 · open −$124
Gross ROI / mkt -97% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -97% what you keep after slip
Net edge-97%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$890now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$150
sports 1% −$5
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-97.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -87.9% -89.0% 0% 0% -89.0%
≤30d 4 -97.0% -97.3% 0% 0% -92.5%
≤90d 4 -97.0% -97.3% 0% 0% -92.5%
all 4 -97.0% -97.3% 0% 0% -92.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -97.3% 0% -92.5%
10% -97.5% 0% -93.2%
15% -97.8% 0% -93.9%
20% -98.0% 0% -94.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -97% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$9 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$890
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage38d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $879 $810 −$69 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $67 −$43 (-39%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $13 −$12 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $28 −$25 -88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $63 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY $0 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Will United Sta BUY $1 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $202 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 14¢ $14 10d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $5 11d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes $1 12d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $7 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $120 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $240 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $113 15d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 15d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $26 15d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 15d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $176 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $396 37d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $92 37d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 37d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $276 37d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $104 38d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 38d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 38d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $111 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $890.37 · official $890.74 (match) · 69 history records