trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -64.3% | -67.7% | 33% | 0% | -30.5% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +53.7% | +39.0% | 65% | 45% | -45.0% |
| all | 20 | +53.7% | +39.0% | 65% | 45% | -45.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +39.0% | 45% | -45.0% |
| 10% | +25.7% | 30% | -50.2% |
| 15% | +13.6% | 25% | -55.1% |
| 20% | +2.4% | 20% | -59.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $2,223 | $243 | −$1,980 (-89%) |
| Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 73¢ | 82¢ | $18 | $20 | +$2 (+13%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? | Jun 28 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? | Jun 05 | $5 | $0 | +7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 5? | Jun 04 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? | May 26 | $1 | +$12 | +1155% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET | May 24 | $11 | −$3 | -27% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | May 24 | $8 | +$1 | +12% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | May 24 | $8 | +$2 | +20% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | May 24 | $2 | +$1 | +31% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | May 24 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET | May 24 | $7 | +$1 | +8% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | May 24 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | May 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET | May 24 | $3 | +$1 | +20% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | May 24 | $1 | +$3 | +280% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | May 24 | $91 | −$88 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | May 24 | $3 | +$2 | +55% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | May 24 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | May 24 | $3 | +$1 | +40% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET | May 24 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET | May 24 | $12 | +$8 | +65% |