Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4B 0x4bd2…3853 other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$109 (+39%) realized +$117 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$36
sports 34% +$56
crypto 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +41.7% +28.2% 38% 38% +48.6%
≤30d 26 +41.7% +28.2% 38% 38% +48.6%
≤90d 26 +41.7% +28.2% 38% 38% +48.6%
all 26 +41.7% +28.2% 38% 38% +48.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.2% 38% +48.6%
10% ← realistic here +15.9% 38% +34.4%
15% +4.7% 38% +21.4%
20% -5.6% 38% +9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×4.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +136%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$26 +253%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 +$7 +109%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +195%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$21 +136%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 −$4 -29%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$15 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -61%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$25 +405%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$4 +40%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 +$30 +228%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 15m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $36 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $44 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $6 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $30 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $35 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $2 8h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 9h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over $1 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $5 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.25 · official $22.25 (match) · 80 history records