Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bd5…285e politics 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%3W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$851per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$33
other 7% −$2
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$947) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses3 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage75d
Avg bet$851
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? Jun 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $911 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $911 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,838 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $913 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $919 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $923 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 08 $934 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $936 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $940 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 26 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $952 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $42 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $911 10d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $911 11d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $910 12d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $911 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $912 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $913 16d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $912 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $914 19d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $911 20d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $913 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $915 25d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $916 26d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $921 27d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $922 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $916 29d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $918 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $922 32d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $924 32d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $918 34d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $919 35d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $921 36d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $923 36d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $924 38d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $925 38d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $926 40d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $927 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.76 · official $36.76 (match) · 115 history records