Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

4B 0x4bdb…92db other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$868 (+16%) realized +$877 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate21%3W / 11L

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$329per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$3,178now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$197

7 days+$273

14 days−$346

30 days+$1,129

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-31.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+5.7%	-4.3%	29%	29%	+14.5%
≤30d	14	-24.4%	-31.6%	21%	21%	+34.4%
≤90d	14	-24.4%	-31.6%	21%	21%	+34.4%
all	14	-24.4%	-31.6%	21%	21%	+34.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.6%	21%	+34.4%
10%	-38.2%	21%	+21.5%
15%	-44.1%	21%	+9.8%
20%	-49.6%	21%	-1.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 93% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt +49% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -55% → late +6% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$616 vs −$65 · ×9.43 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage

Net worth$3,178

Realized+$877

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)21%

Wins / losses3 / 11

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions3

Markets (closed)14 / 17

History coverage65d

Avg bet$329

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$2,099	$1,817	−$282 (-13%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	45¢	62¢	$838	$1,154	+$316 (+38%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	25¢	21¢	$250	$207	−$43 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$185	−$17	-9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 22	$51	−$12	-24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 22	$55	−$9	-16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$351	+$246	+70%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$235	−$11	-5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$102	+$126	+124%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 14	$41	−$40	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$288	−$282	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$99	−$97	-98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$677	+$1,475	+218%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	27¢	$168	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	29¢	$169	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	28¢	$86	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	27¢	$39	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	15¢	$46	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$596	30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$351	39h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	20¢	$224	43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	32¢	$102	3d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$235	4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	25¢	$256	4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	17¢	$55	6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	34¢	$51	6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	29¢	$83	6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	44¢	$102	6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	23¢	$51	7d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$41	7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	22¢	$102	7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	30¢	$288	8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	25¢	$99	8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$12	18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$2,140	18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	58¢	$224	22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	25¢	$227	65d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	26¢	$200	65d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	26¢	$26	65d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,178.34 · official $3,178.34 (match) · 50 history records