Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bdb…0371 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$113 (-22%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$169
other 29% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -40.8% -46.5% 27% 27% -47.1%
≤30d 11 -40.8% -46.5% 27% 27% -47.1%
≤90d 11 -40.8% -46.5% 27% 27% -47.1%
all 11 -40.8% -46.5% 27% 27% -47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.5% 27% -47.1%
10% -51.6% 27% -52.2%
15% -56.3% 18% -56.8%
20% -60.6% 18% -61.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$42 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $71 +$22 +32%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $77 −$62 -81%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$31 +60%
Jordan to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 23 $31 +$74 +240%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Senegal to score first vs. Norway? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 75¢ $71 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $51 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 3h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 77¢ $81 3h
Jordan to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 94¢ $104 3h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4h
Jordan to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 0¢ $10 5h
Senegal to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $48 16h
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 16h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $52 44h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 26¢ $51 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records