Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bdb…e382 politics 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$358 (-0%) realized −$359 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$855per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$588now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$63
other 40% −$664
sports 10% +$364
culture 4% −$8
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 133 -4.4% -13.5% 18% 10% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 10% -9.8%
10% -21.8% 10% -18.5%
15% -29.4% 8% -26.3%
20% -36.3% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,077) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$11 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$588
Realized−$359
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage135d
Avg bet$855
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $587 $588 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $441 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $445 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,647 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $909 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,032 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,893 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,284 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $977 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,286 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $366 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,458 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,776 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,090 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,950 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 02 $177 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 02 $240 +$1 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,462 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,408 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,516 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $3,238 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,850 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $440 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $441 4h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $441 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $442 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $443 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $444 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $445 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $445 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $443 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $444 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $587 10d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,031 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $908 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $909 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,030 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,032 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,033 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,035 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,037 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,041 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,042 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $855 20d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $857 20d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $874 20d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $876 21d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $664 22d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $665 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $976 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $588.15 · official $588.15 (match) · 459 history records