Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4B 0x4bdd…903a other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$1 (+20%) realized +$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip

Net edge+41%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 602d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+40.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	1	+55.8%	+40.9%	100%	100%	+40.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+40.9%	100%	+40.9%
10%	+27.4%	100%	+27.4%
15%	+15.1%	100%	+15.1%
20%	+3.8%	100%	+3.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +56% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized+$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage602d

Avg bet$1

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+5%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Feb 04	$2	+$1	+56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	11d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	64¢	$2	601d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.93 · official $2.93 (match) · 5 history records