Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bdd…13e7 politics 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$4
other 19% −$2
sports 7% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 19% 0% -9.7%
all 36 -0.2% -9.7% 19% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage83d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $119 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $301 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $59 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $119 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $123 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $61 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $124 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $125 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $63 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $56 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $56 27h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $56 27h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $56 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 5d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $56 5d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $57 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $57 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $57 7d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $57 7d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $57 13d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 13d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 16d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $57 16d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $57 18d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $57 18d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $58 25d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $58 25d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 27d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $59 27d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 28d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 28d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 30d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $59 32d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $59 32d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $59 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.77 · official $55.77 (match) · 197 history records