Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:59:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bde…c70c politics 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,942 (-2%) realized −$2,942 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate26%33W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$950per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$11
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$59
other 34% +$7
sports 17% −$2,906
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$5
world 1% +$1
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -1.7% -11.1% 8% 0% -11.1%
all 125 -5.5% -14.5% 26% 7% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 7% -11.8%
10% -22.6% 7% -20.2%
15% -30.1% 7% -27.9%
20% -37.0% 5% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,312) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$40 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,942
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses33 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage152d
Avg bet$950
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $1,903 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 27 $213 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $614 +$4 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $4,323 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $307 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $272 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,723 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,024 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,849 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $272 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $490 +$1 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $331 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,788 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,766 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,975 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,028 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,310 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,053 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $3,190 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $3,290 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 04 $243 +$1 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $2,182 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $611 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $241 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,674 −$2 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $3,017 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $1,225 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $4,282 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $586 33m
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $213 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $587 2h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $213 5h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $321 6h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $321 8h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 21h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 26h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $295 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $295 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $306 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $307 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $248 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $249 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $272 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $614 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $727 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $728 13d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $742 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $743 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,022 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,024 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $970 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $972 15d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $953 15d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $954 15d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $872 16d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $873 16d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,136 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records