Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4B 0x4be0…a8c6 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$10
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$12
other 31% −$12
politics 22% +$1
tech 3% +$5
finance 2% +$3
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 19 +0.3% -9.2% 32% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 28 +0.3% -9.3% 32% 0% -9.4%
all 48 +1.0% -8.6% 31% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage340d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $206 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $261 +$8 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $282 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $167 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $90 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $261 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $134 +$3 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $184 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $246 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $43 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $98 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $83 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $93 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $11 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $82 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $486 −$2 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $142 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $206 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $309 −$10 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $158 +$3 +2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $560 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $656 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $505 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $687 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Jorgenson win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? Jul 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $3 $0 +10%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $11 −$1 -6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 12 $129 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $111 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $110 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $131 +$1 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $103 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $91 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $103 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $103 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $103 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $90 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $54 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $38 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $102 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $102 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $69 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $15 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $62 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $20 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $59 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $34 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $46 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $41 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $96 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $96 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $96 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $96 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $86 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $86 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.87 · official $103.03 (match) · 246 history records