Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4B 0x4be2…4c5b sports 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 764d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$208 (+5%) realized +$198 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate70%91W / 39L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$117
14 days+$14
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$82
other 17% +$236
crypto 4% −$45
politics 3% −$4
world 2% +$2
economics 2% +$10
tech 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -23.4% -30.7% 36% 36% -15.5%
≤30d 28 +8.5% -1.9% 46% 46% -4.2%
≤90d 38 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 42% -4.6%
all 130 -1.0% -10.4% 70% 41% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 41% -3.0%
10% -19.0% 32% -12.3%
15% -26.8% 25% -20.7%
20% -34.0% 22% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$30 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

764d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses91 / 39
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 133
History coverage764d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $37 −$36 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $78 +$94 +122%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$87 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 +$84 +83%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$221 +216%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $102 +$116 +114%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $101 +$87 +86%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$97 +474%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$22 +109%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 23 $51 +$70 +137%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $30 +$19 +64%
LoL: Winthrop University vs Maryville University (BO5) - North America May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $15 +$1 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Christ May 04 $13 +$7 +52%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 +$14 +70%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 22.5 Apr 29 $15 $0 +1%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 28 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) Apr 28 $30 +$3 +8%
Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-08? Feb 09 $12 +$8 +67%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Feb 07 $20 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 21 $5 $0 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Jan 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Next Gen ATP Finals, Group A: Learner Tien vs Martin Landaluce Dec 30 $20 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 30 $20 $0 +1%
Real Betis vs. Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Dec 07 $44 +$6 +12%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29? Dec 04 $20 +$5 +27%
Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Dec 04 $16 +$14 +82%
Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Nov 29 $20 +$11 +56%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Alia Nov 16 $16 +$4 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $37 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $101 22h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 44¢ $78 23h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 33¢ $51 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $101 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 45h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $102 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $101 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $101 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $101 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 56¢ $101 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 36¢ $102 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 31¢ $102 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $21 3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under $1 3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under $10 3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $102 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Norway BUY 42¢ $102 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $101 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 17¢ $51 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $102 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $101 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 9d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 47¢ $20 21d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 BUY Leviatán Esports 41¢ $51 28d
LoL: Winthrop University vs Maryville University (BO5) - North America BUY Maryville University 62¢ $10 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.81 · official $44.81 (match) · 256 history records