Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4be7…ea93 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-2%) realized −$83 · open +$53
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$586now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$41
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$48
sports 46% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -10.4% -19.0% 58% 42% -13.7%
≤30d 15 -8.3% -17.0% 60% 33% -12.4%
≤90d 15 -8.3% -17.0% 60% 33% -12.4%
all 15 -8.3% -17.0% 60% 33% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 33% -12.4%
10% -24.9% 20% -20.8%
15% -32.2% 13% -28.4%
20% -38.8% 13% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$586
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage8d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? No 77¢ 84¢ $533 $586 +$53 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $167 +$5 +3%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $3 +$2 +64%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $7 +$5 +74%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $107 +$3 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $162 −$9 -6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $185 +$30 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $173 +$12 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $67 −$8 -12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $142 47m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $51 56m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $7 56m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $68 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $71 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $76 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $16 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $89 1h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 79¢ $25 2h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 79¢ $25 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 95¢ $58 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 95¢ $9 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 93¢ $66 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 93¢ $103 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 90¢ $90 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 89¢ $10 2d
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Stefanos Sakellaridis $4 4d
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Stefanos Sakellaridis $1 4d
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic SELL Elena Micic $12 4d
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis $0 4d
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Elena Micic $0 4d
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Elena Micic $0 4d
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Elena Micic $0 4d
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Elena Micic $0 4d
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Elena Micic $0 4d
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Elena Micic $0 4d
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis $0 4d
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Elena Micic $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $585.73 · official $585.73 (match) · 94 history records