Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4be8…c119
other · 110 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 98
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage110d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Bucks vs. Clippers Bucks 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Magic Wizards 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Lakers Pelicans 25¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Nets vs. Warriors Nets 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Pistons Pistons 57¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Grizzlies 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $59 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 19 $75 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $75 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $79 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $173 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $131 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $127 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 28 $63 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $137 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $136 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $140 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $124 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $128 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $179 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $139 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $142 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$4
politics 35% −$3
sports 11% −$7
crypto 5% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 18h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 18h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 20d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 20d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 24d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $64 24d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $64 26d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $75 26d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $75 34d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 37d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 38d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $70 38d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $70 38d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 39d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 39d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $57 39d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $57 40d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $67 40d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 40d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 41d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 41d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 41d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 42d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -1.3% -10.7% 10% 5% -9.5%
all 109 -4.0% -13.1% 10% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 4% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.99 · official $12.99 (match) · 301 history records