Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4bea…bab9
weather · 367 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$29 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$30
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses194 / 167
Open positions6
Markets (closed)361 / 367
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 6 History 361 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$41
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 87¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? No 88¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 3? No 78¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 3? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 26? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 10? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 29? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on May 31? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 4? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 25? No 82¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 10? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $24 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $9 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 03 $42 −$23 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 03 $13 −$10 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 3? Jun 03 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $37 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $18 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $13 +$7 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $29 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 02 $67 −$6 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 02 $1 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 02 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $37 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 −$3 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $45 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 2? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $33 −$7 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May Jun 01 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ma May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on May 31? May 31 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1? May 31 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 31? May 31 $2 +$3 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% −$30
other 6% $0
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 89¢ $19 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 64¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 70¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? BUY No 91¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $11 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? SELL No 79¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? BUY No 51¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? BUY No 88¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.5% -6.3% 88% 25% -3.7%
≤30d 229 +4.5% -5.5% 53% 36% -10.8%
≤90d 361 +3.2% -6.6% 54% 37% -10.6%
all 361 +3.2% -6.6% 54% 37% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 37% -10.6%
10% -15.6% 24% -19.1%
15% -23.7% 19% -26.9%
20% -31.2% 15% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.41 · official $30.41 (match) · 1091 history records