Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4beb…7ea5 crypto 433 markets active 5d ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$383 (+3%) realized +$383 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%216W / 217L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$7
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$344
sports 1% +$8
other 0% +$26
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -26.5% -33.5% 33% 22% -30.2%
≤30d 107 -16.5% -24.4% 47% 36% -34.6%
≤90d 109 -14.1% -22.3% 48% 38% -29.1%
all 433 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 45% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 45% -6.7%
10% -19.0% 40% -15.6%
15% -26.8% 33% -23.8%
20% -34.0% 32% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$383
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses216 / 217
Open positions0
Markets (closed)433 / 433
History coverage405d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 433 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 29 $6 −$1 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1257 history records