Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bed…b122 crypto 36 markets active 4d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-12%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$8
sports 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.7% -23.7% 57% 57% -32.2%
≤30d 36 -14.9% -23.0% 53% 47% -24.4%
≤90d 36 -14.9% -23.0% 53% 47% -24.4%
all 36 -14.9% -23.0% 53% 47% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 47% -24.4%
10% -30.3% 42% -31.7%
15% -37.1% 31% -38.3%
20% -43.2% 25% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +42%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +74%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +112%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +64%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $3 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records