Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bf2…236e sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$140 (-9%) realized −$141 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%25W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$191
14 days−$191
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$220
other 35% +$82
crypto 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -62.2% -65.8% 18% 18% -48.4%
≤30d 22 -62.2% -65.8% 18% 18% -48.4%
≤90d 54 -26.7% -33.6% 30% 30% -28.6%
all 78 -12.1% -20.4% 32% 32% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 32% -18.1%
10% -28.0% 32% -25.9%
15% -35.0% 32% -33.1%
20% -41.4% 31% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$19 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses25 / 53
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage102d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $55 +$102 +185%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico to win the second half? Jun 11 $20 +$20 +99%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $20 +$20 +99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) Apr 17 $60 −$59 -98%
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5) Apr 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 3.5 Apr 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Kayserispor vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $10 +$17 +172%
Kayserispor vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) Apr 11 $30 +$62 +206%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 4.5 Apr 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 3.5 Apr 10 $23 +$28 +123%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $16 +$16 +101%
Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime? Apr 09 $10 +$36 +365%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 07 $26 −$26 -98%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? Apr 07 $20 +$36 +180%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $53 +$55 +104%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $23 +$25 +109%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 3.5 Apr 05 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $15 +$37 +249%
Trabzonspor vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $31 +$30 +97%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $30 −$29 -98%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Mar 31 $33 −$32 -98%
Türkiye vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Mar 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $24 1h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 28h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $10 28h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $19 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $46 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 BUY Over 7¢ $3 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $31 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $21 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $19 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $157 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $55 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Under 62¢ $15 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $31 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 4d
Mexico to win the second half? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 5d
Mexico to win the second half? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 5d
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 5d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 3¢ $5 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 6d
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) BUY Fenerbahçe SK 51¢ $60 61d
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5) BUY Fenerbahçe SK 29¢ $29 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.23 · official $53.23 (match) · 106 history records