Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bf3…5329 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$55 (-5%) realized −$53 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$64
14 days+$107
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$135
other 12% +$64
crypto 7% +$9
world 5% +$1
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
≤30d 4 +7.1% -3.1% 75% 75% -10.1%
≤90d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 75% 67% -12.9%
all 20 -11.2% -19.7% 75% 40% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 40% -14.5%
10% -27.4% 25% -22.7%
15% -34.4% 20% -30.2%
20% -40.8% 5% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$56 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage177d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Senegal 35¢ 34¢ $165 $163 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $108 +$64 +60%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $102 +$43 +42%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 03 $148 −$146 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $131 +$36 +27%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $91 +$34 +38%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 15 $88 −$87 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 15 $12 +$2 +19%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? May 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10? May 15 $43 +$8 +19%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 15 $59 +$11 +18%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 15 $51 +$24 +48%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 18 $23 −$23 -99%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru Mar 16 $17 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Mar 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UAE strike Yemen by January 31? Feb 04 $16 $0 +1%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 04 $42 $0 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition Jan 10 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 35¢ $168 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $108 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $102 14d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 34¢ $148 23d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 78¢ $24 28d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 78¢ $108 28d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY MOUZ 72¢ $91 35d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 56¢ $88 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10? BUY Yes 83¢ $43 51d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $59 59d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 67¢ $51 62d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 67¢ $23 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 94d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 94d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 102d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru BUY No 100¢ $17 108d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 84¢ $12 113d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? BUY No 100¢ $19 121d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? BUY Yes $1 133d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $22 153d
Will UAE strike Yemen by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $16 160d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 99¢ $23 160d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 99¢ $19 167d
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition BUY Yes 100¢ $23 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.79 · official $162.84 (match) · 39 history records