Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:52:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4bf4…7021 world 315 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$5,927 (+7%) realized +$5,241 · open +$686
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate83%248W / 51L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day59.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$5,849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 53d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$6,856
politics 11% +$2,232
other 10% +$580
crypto 6% +$419
economics 4% +$1,750
tech 2% +$74
finance 1% +$58
culture 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -6.4% -15.3% 64% 7% -8.5%
≤30d 188 +47.0% +33.0% 80% 43% +2.2%
≤90d 299 +38.9% +25.7% 83% 36% +3.5%
all 299 +38.9% +25.7% 83% 36% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.7% 36% +3.5%
10% ← realistic here +13.7% 28% -6.4%
15% +2.7% 23% -15.5%
20% -7.4% 20% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$43 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.18 per $1 lost it wins $6.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$5,849
Realized+$5,241
Unrealized+$686
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses248 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)299 / 315
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$286
Trades / day59.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 86¢ $1,412 $1,420 +$8 (+1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $680 $1,061 +$381 (+56%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $962 $1,050 +$88 (+9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 48¢ 62¢ $480 $615 +$135 (+28%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 42¢ $430 $425 −$5 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 39¢ 44¢ $337 $372 +$35 (+10%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $200 $236 +$36 (+18%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $214 $220 +$6 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $145 $127 −$18 (-12%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $60 $91 +$31 (+51%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $88 $91 +$3 (+3%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 68¢ 88¢ $51 $66 +$15 (+29%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $73 $57 −$16 (-22%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 18 $175 +$36 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $12,055 +$1,070 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $886 −$511 -58%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $930 +$67 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 17 $238 +$4 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $60 −$28 -46%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 15 $1,576 −$346 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,144 +$56 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2,088 +$172 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $5,671 +$50 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $799 +$30 +4%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $160 +$39 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $831 −$187 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $665 −$84 -13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $569 −$65 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,813 +$72 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $833 +$65 +8%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $423 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $294 +$23 +8%
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 13 $27 −$5 -19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 12 $1,921 +$13 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $967 +$5 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $118 +$12 +10%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $2,126 +$13 +1%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 12 $956 −$5 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $361 −$54 -15%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $185 +$4 +2%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 11 $765 +$10 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 10 $782 +$319 +41%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $545 +$892 +164%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 10 $1,510 +$395 +26%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $559 −$10 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $722 −$10 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 10 $609 +$21 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $128 +$4 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 09 $284 +$11 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 09 $105 +$5 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $1,535 +$1,226 +80%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 08 $27 +$13 +50%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 08 $230 −$20 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $680 +$41 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 07 $955 +$902 +94%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $1,146 +$296 +26%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 06 $111 +$24 +22%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $815 +$115 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $910 +$40 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4,117 +$26 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 03 $57 −$25 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $1,412 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $145 2h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 43¢ $440 2h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 28¢ $147 16h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 68¢ $44 20h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 68¢ $5 20h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 68¢ $2 20h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 28¢ $22 22h
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 28¢ $11 22h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 9¢ $18 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 61¢ $15 25h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 6¢ $12 25h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 8¢ $21 25h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 8¢ $8 25h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 7¢ $4 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 25h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $997 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $35 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $19 25h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 26h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 11¢ $1 26h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 11¢ $1 26h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 27h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $47 29h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,849.09 · official $5,849.59 (match) · 3500 history records