Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4bf9…700f crypto 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%18W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,718per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 18 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses18 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,718
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 08 $44 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in April? May 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 07 $49 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $121 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 24 $28,315 +$28 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 23 $2,952 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 05 $121 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 26 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 12? Feb 15 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 7? Feb 11 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4 Feb 05 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Feb 02 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 25 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 33d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 40d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 99¢ $44 45d
Will Solana dip to $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 58d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 100¢ $19 61d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $30 64d
Will Solana dip to $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $2,775 90d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $201 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $191 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $94 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $175 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $263 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $7 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $348 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $218 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $5 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.70 · official $70.70 (match) · 559 history records