Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4bf9…1e87 sports 576 markets active 20h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,521 (+2%) realized +$1,510 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%329W / 246L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$943est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$241
14 days−$173
30 days+$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$662
other 3% +$132
world 0% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% +4.6%
≤30d 99 +23.7% +11.9% 57% 49% -5.0%
≤90d 409 +11.4% +0.8% 56% 50% -6.9%
all 575 +7.5% -2.7% 57% 49% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 49% -8.1%
10% -12.0% 38% -16.9%
15% -20.5% 26% -24.9%
20% -28.3% 17% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$54 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$1,510
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses329 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$943
Open positions1
Markets (closed)575 / 576
History coverage243d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 575 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$40 +39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$119 +59%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $553 −$9 -2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$97 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$13 -13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$103 +51%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -87%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $213 −$158 -74%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 −$238 -78%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$47 -52%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$38 +75%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$91 -89%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$48 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$118 +230%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$8 -15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $310 −$176 -57%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$102 +51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$52 -26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$38 -75%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $303 +$3 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$22 -14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$1 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$114 +112%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$55 -54%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$28 +28%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $404 +$121 +30%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $66 −$50 -76%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$33 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $31 −$21 -68%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $61 +$63 +103%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$27 +26%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $233 +$57 +24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$58 -57%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $152 +$62 +41%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $101 +$7 +7%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $101 +$35 +35%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $304 +$116 +38%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $201 +$54 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$36 +35%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$42 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $141 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $322 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $454 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $452 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 56¢ $90 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $282 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 77¢ $85 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 44¢ $88 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $305 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $65 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $43 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.11 · official $111.11 (match) · 1697 history records