Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4B 0x4bfa…85fa sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$322 (+5%) realized +$460 · open −$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$432per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$264
7 days+$632
14 days+$488
30 days+$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$109
other 4% +$242
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +62.5% +47.0% 75% 75% +2.1%
≤30d 13 +15.1% +4.2% 54% 54% -1.1%
≤90d 13 +15.1% +4.2% 54% 54% -1.1%
all 13 +15.1% +4.2% 54% 54% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 54% -1.1%
10% -5.8% 54% -10.6%
15% -14.9% 54% -19.2%
20% -23.2% 54% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$59 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$460
Unrealized−$138
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage13d
Avg bet$432
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Uruguay 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Over 2¢ 0¢ $157 $19 −$137 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) Jun 26 $4,036 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $122 +$139 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $135 +$126 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $124 +$116 +93%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $122 +$128 +105%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $124 −$122 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $152 +$148 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $86 −$85 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $91 +$89 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $404 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $369 1h
Spread: Egypt (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $20 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 0¢ $2 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 0¢ $1 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 2¢ $206 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $200 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $200 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $200 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $200 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $200 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $200 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.09 · official $39.09 (match) · 58 history records