Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4bfc…f71d sports 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,239 (+10%) realized +$1,238 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days+$716
14 days+$1,779
30 days+$1,779
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$1,920
other 40% +$722
crypto 14% −$1,255
politics 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -10.9% -19.4% 26% 26% -2.6%
≤30d 44 -7.8% -16.6% 27% 27% +6.3%
≤90d 44 -7.8% -16.6% 27% 27% +6.3%
all 47 -7.5% -16.3% 28% 28% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 28% +0.9%
10% -24.3% 28% -8.8%
15% -31.6% 23% -17.6%
20% -38.3% 23% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$105 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$1,238
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage598d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $61 −$18 -29%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $31 −$18 -60%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $306 +$395 +129%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $305 +$349 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $818 −$392 -48%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $307 −$16 -5%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$31 -30%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $81 −$37 -45%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 −$49 -16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 −$108 -70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$105 -52%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$23 -46%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$68 -67%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$27 -52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $305 +$297 +97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $611 −$38 -6%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $306 −$93 -30%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$43 -42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $123 +$598 +486%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$17 -40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $304 −$152 -50%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $102 +$79 +77%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $304 +$104 +34%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$63 -61%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$39 -75%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$34 +33%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $254 +$355 +139%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $608 −$188 -31%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $81 −$48 -59%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Jun 14 $599 −$599 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,122 +$1,103 +98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$54 -53%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$22 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$18 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$222 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $857 +$1,063 +124%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $384 +$215 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Nov 09 $1,039 −$656 -63%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 05 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12m
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 13m
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 14m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 41m
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 25¢ $22 47m
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 28¢ $22 52m
Spread: United States (-3.5) SELL United States 8¢ $12 1h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 19¢ $31 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 50¢ $30 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 82¢ $701 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 28¢ $31 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $306 18h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 99¢ $167 18h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 89¢ $487 18h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $85 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $107 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $291 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 27¢ $71 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $102 27h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 25¢ $44 27h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 44¢ $81 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $102 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $234 42h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 43h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $82 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.66 · official $29.81 (match) · 129 history records