Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4bff…3682 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$386 (-27%) realized −$240 · open −$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$307
other 40% −$296
sports 4% −$54
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -41.6% -47.2% 27% 20% -63.8%
≤30d 41 -41.6% -47.2% 27% 20% -63.8%
≤90d 41 -41.6% -47.2% 27% 20% -63.8%
all 41 -41.6% -47.2% 27% 20% -63.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.2% 20% -63.8%
10% ← realistic here -52.2% 10% -67.3%
15% -56.8% 7% -70.4%
20% -61.1% 7% -73.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$21 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$240
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage2d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $400 $260 −$140 (-35%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $83 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $77 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gabriel Ghetu Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$30 -94%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Uzbekistan vs Indonesia Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$97 +915%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $308 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 20h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $12 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $13 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $16 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $21 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.05 · official $277.05 (match) · 116 history records