Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

4C 0x4c00…6db8 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR46%break-even

Win rate54%7W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day48.0pace

Kalshi-fit89%portable

Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +46%

net ROI/market (all)-28.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-21.1%	-28.6%	54%	46%	-27.0%
≤30d	13	-21.1%	-28.6%	54%	46%	-27.0%
≤90d	13	-21.1%	-28.6%	54%	46%	-27.0%
all	13	-21.1%	-28.6%	54%	46%	-27.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover48.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-28.6%	46%	-27.0%
10% ← realistic here	-35.4%	23%	-33.9%
15%	-41.6%	15%	-40.3%
20%	-47.4%	15%	-46.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late -52% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$37 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$65

Realized−$17

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses7 / 6

Open positions5

Markets (closed)13 / 18

History coverage1d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day48.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?	Yes	11¢	24¢	$15	$32	+$17 (+114%)
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?	Yes	69¢	70¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-3%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	10¢	8¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-15%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	53¢	52¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 18	$15	+$2	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 18	$16	+$3	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 18	$52	−$50	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 18	$52	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 18	$27	−$27	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 18	$103	−$38	-36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 18	$104	−$100	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 18	$244	+$20	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 18	$104	+$22	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 18	$52	+$12	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 18	$52	+$5	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$21	+79%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?	BUY Yes	11¢	$15	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$19	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$16	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Up	70¢	$6	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Up	94¢	$10	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	SELL Up	22¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	SELL Up	86¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	SELL Up	48¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	SELL Up	35¢	$59	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$36	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	SELL Up	67¢	$68	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	SELL Up	31¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$33	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$118	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Down	92¢	$33	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Up	31¢	$34	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.44 · official $65.92 (match) · 52 history records