Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c01…ca96
crypto · 15 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$8 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$111 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day180.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$111
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$27 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $119 +$31 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $94 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$33 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $84 +$28 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $117 −$47 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$22 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$9 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $68 −$12 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$33 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$22 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $84 +$5 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $38 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.3% -19.7% 47% 33% -19.2%
≤30d 15 -11.3% -19.7% 47% 33% -19.2%
≤90d 15 -11.3% -19.7% 47% 33% -19.2%
all 15 -11.3% -19.7% 47% 33% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover180.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 33% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 33% -26.9%
15% -34.4% 20% -34.0%
20% -40.9% 13% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records