Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:34:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c02…16f3 other 88 markets active 3d ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-2%) realized −$82 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%18W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% +$241
world 27% −$324
other 18% −$137
economics 4% +$68
sports 3% +$46
crypto 2% −$55
tech 1% +$47
culture 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.9% -11.2% 33% 29% -2.5%
≤30d 21 -1.9% -11.2% 33% 29% -2.5%
≤90d 23 -10.4% -18.9% 30% 26% -70.4%
all 58 -5.1% -14.1% 31% 29% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 29% -14.0%
10% -22.3% 28% -22.2%
15% -29.8% 19% -29.7%
20% -36.7% 17% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$17 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses18 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions30
Markets (closed)58 / 88
History coverage469d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $142 −$20 -14%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 21 $500 −$77 -15%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 21 $1,000 +$273 +27%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jul 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release? Jul 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump cut military spending? May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
New Pope in 2025? May 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 13 $20 −$14 -69%
SpaceX Starship fully reusable in 2025? Apr 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Apr 13 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 13 $5 +$11 +220%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? Apr 13 $10 +$11 +111%
US recession in 2025? Apr 13 $120 +$68 +57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? Apr 01 $5 +$10 +194%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX rescues stranded astronauts before April? Mar 19 $5 +$1 +28%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" 5+ times during Crypto Summit on Friday Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say 'mandate' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the U Mar 05 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
OpenAI acquired in 2025? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 100¢ $160 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 4d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 75¢ $121 4d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 29¢ $21 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.47 · official $252.47 (match) · 147 history records