Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c04…7dca
crypto · 1016 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$457 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$363 · open +$94
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,509
Realized+$363
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses993 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1014 / 1016
History coverage2d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day1190.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 1014 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$218
7 days+$363
14 days+$363
30 days+$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 91¢ 100¢ $920 $1,009 +$90 (+10%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $495 $500 +$5 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $297 +$16 +6%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1,095 +$25 +2%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
United States to win the second half? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $86 +$14 +17%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $40 −$25 -63%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $368 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $495 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $84 +$26 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $296 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $85 +$15 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $194 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $118 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $296 +$4 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $476 +$34 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$283
other 3% +$475
sports 2% +$265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $54 23m
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $86 26m
United States to win the second half? BUY No 100¢ $200 29m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $10 30m
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 31m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 100¢ $10 32m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 32m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 99¢ $155 33m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 33m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 99¢ $146 33m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 34m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 34m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 34m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 99¢ $68 34m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 99¢ $10 34m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 99¢ $10 35m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 99¢ $10 35m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 35m
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 36m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $10 37m
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $10 40m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 40m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $372 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1014 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.3%
≤30d 1014 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 1014 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.3%
all 1014 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1190.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 1% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,509.21 · official $1,509.21 (match) · 3500 history records