Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4C 0x4c08…8bac other 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$874 (+1%) realized +$838 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate71%116W / 48L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$424per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$453
7 days−$353
14 days−$353
30 days−$353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$1,166
sports 12% −$192
world 2% +$19
politics 0% +$9
weather 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 43% -39.1%
≤30d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 43% -39.1%
≤90d 27 -15.2% -23.2% 67% 37% -8.8%
all 164 -15.1% -23.2% 71% 24% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 24% -8.4%
10% -30.6% 14% -17.2%
15% -37.3% 10% -25.2%
20% -43.4% 8% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$50 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$838
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses116 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage214d
Avg bet$424
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 42¢ $50 $86 +$36 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $430 −$430 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $278 +$55 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $171 +$44 +26%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1,880 +$120 +6%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $1,946 +$54 +3%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2,003 +$23 +1%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-27? May 01 $1,970 +$30 +2%
Will AS Roma vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Apr 18 $77 +$15 +20%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1,862 +$28 +2%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 15 $1,900 +$30 +2%
Will Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Apr 13 $1,900 +$38 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $800 +$106 +13%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $1,700 +$25 +2%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Hawks Mar 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Raptors vs. Jazz Mar 24 $10 +$2 +24%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Lyon reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? Mar 22 $146 +$42 +29%
Will Stuttgart reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? Mar 22 $180 +$20 +11%
Will Qairat FK vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Mar 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-07? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Galatasaray SK vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-12? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Mar 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Mar 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-01? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-23? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Mar 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 19 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 19 $700 +$46 +6%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-12-10? Mar 19 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025 Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-03? Mar 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ditonellapiaga win Sanremo 2026? Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-04? Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 Mar 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 4h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 24h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $430 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $278 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $170 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $1 3d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 94¢ $130 39d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 94¢ $16 39d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 94¢ $1,682 39d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 94¢ $52 39d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 97¢ $194 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 97¢ $195 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 97¢ $195 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 97¢ $195 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 97¢ $195 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 97¢ $195 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 97¢ $580 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 97¢ $195 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 97¢ $2 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 97¢ $2 42d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 46d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 99¢ $1,473 46d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 99¢ $12 46d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 99¢ $263 46d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 98¢ $23 46d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 98¢ $51 46d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 98¢ $181 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.46 · official $82.29 · 410 history records